Population Explosion - Detail

This scenario considers the possibility that the Department of Finance projection figures may be a considerable underestimate of what the population will actually be in the year 2050. If that were the case, it would certainly affect our development forecast and underestimate the amount of space needed to sustain the future population. Here we took the DOF population projection figures for the year 2050[*] and added 20%. Some groups did not run out of space trying to accommodate more people, but others, especially the group with Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer and Amador counties (Group 5), had to be re-run after modifying the general plan. The model was run using our Base Case set of discouragers and masks which did not include levies, groundwater area, or fire hazards, but does include a low discourager weight for floodplains.

Model Specifics

Group Population 2000 Population 2050 Persons per Household Employees per Household
1 330,162 757,607 2.51 .83
2 344,295 1,110,980 2.64 .89
3 104,515 254,562 2.67 .72
4 692,331 1,674,163 3.51 1.12
5 1,679,776 3,972,395 2.61 1.26
6 92,532 163,336 2.45 .73
7 3,701 4,256 2.23 .59
8 1,261 1,652 2.39 .42
Attractors Discouragers Masks
Census Blocks with Growth (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Vernal Pools (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Lakes
Highways (All but Residential Very Low Estates) California Natural Diversity Database (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Rivers and Streams
Ramps (All but Residential Very Low Estates) National Wetland Inventory (All but Residential Very Low Estates) Existing Urban
Existing Spheres of Influence (All but Residential Very Low Estates) FEMA 100 Year Floodplains Public Lands
Major Roads (All but Residential Very Low Estates)   Sutter Buttes Area (Group 2 only)
Minor Roads (High and Low Density Commercial and Residential Very Low Estates only)    
Highway 65 (Group 5 only) (All but Residential Very Low Estates)    
City Attractor (Citrus Heights, Rocklin, Lincoln) (Group 5 only) (All but Residential Very Low Estates)    
Group Uplan Land Use Class General Plan Class
1 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
2 High Density Residential High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
Low Density Commercial Industry, High Density Commercial, Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve
3 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
4 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Medium Density Residential High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development, Mixed Uses
5 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Agriculture, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Industry, High Density Commercial, Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
6 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Medium Density Residential, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Low Density Commercial, Urban Reserve, Planned Development
7 High Density Residential Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Residential Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Agriculture, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry, Urban Reserve
High Density Commercial Urban Reserve, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Urban Reserve, Planned Development
8 High Density Residential High Density Residential, Planned Development
Medium Density Residential High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Planned Development, Very Low Density Residential
Low Density Residential High Density Residential, Medium Density Residential, Low Density Residential, Planned Development, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Very Low Density Residential Estates Low Density Residential, Very Low Density Residential
Industrial Industry
High Density Commercial High Density Commercial, Planned Development
Low Density Commercial Industry, High Density Commercial, Low Density Commercial, Planned Development

 

* When running this scenario only the DOF estimates were used and not the numbers used in the exceptions for the Groundwater Scenario or the Natural Disaster Scenario. The reason for going back to the original DOF numbers when we believe the Alpine county planners' numbers are more accurate is to remain consistent. Because we were assuming that the DOF numbers were 20% lower than what they should be, it might be confusing to single out one or two counties and give them different population projections.